The worlds demographics are undergoing dramatic changes, as middle-class jobs flee from the G7 to the emerging BRIC countries. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) represent 19% of the global GDP. By 2030, India will have a larger population than China, and Africa is due to hit 1 billion in population by 2100. BRIC countries and Africa are likely to be the largest end-user market for CDNs. Is there a BRIC-based CDN or CDN strong in the BRIC demographic not named Akamai that is likely to become a multi-billion dollar CDN? First, let’s identify the BRIC-based CDNs. China has a handful of CDNs starting from ChinaNetCenter to ChinaCache, and India has Bitgravity, which is owned by Tata. That’s it for the BRIC-based CDNs.
Then we have CDNetworks, which belongs to KDDI, the large Japanese Telecommunications company with 28,000+ employees. CDNetworks has done a tremendous job of expanding in China and Russia. If there was anyone in the world that could dominate BRIC, it would be CDNetworks. However, we don’t think its CDNetworks, and the China based CDNs are focusing on China, which makes sense, since their population is 4x of the US. If I were to put my chips on a CDN that could become a leader in the BRIC demographic, it would be Aryaka Networks. They have a decent PoP presence in India and APAC, and have a strong international flavor to them. However, they won’t become a strong BRIC contender, because they are focused on disrupting the WAN space, not growing like gang busters in the BRIC countries. Aryaka would have to pivot their philosophy and way of thinking in a whole new direction. Conclusion: we’re back to square one, and that means Akamai will be solo in the BRIC domination game.