Can Netflix Grow to 200M Subs by 2020

If Netflix grows its subscriber base to 100M by 2020, would that be considered a major accomplishment? Not really. However, if Netflix grows its subscribers to 200M, that would be major. A couple of days ago at CES, Netflix announced it added more than 130 countries to its current portfolio of 50 countries, which means they can stream to pretty much anywhere in the world. At last count, Netflix had 60M subscribers, so if they grow their subs to 100M by 2020, that’s 10M new subs per year, not much when taking into account the global population metrics. We predict Netflix will reach 200M subs by 2020 and is likely to surpass Comcast in market valuation. Of course this is just a hunch, and its not based on any data, because there is no historical data that could predict such an outcome. The big question is how are the AT&Ts and Comcast’s of the world going to respond?

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